Official MOE Data via SingStat

Singapore Birth Cohort AnalysisSingapore Birth Cohort Analysis

Track birth cohorts through the education pipeline using real SingStat data. See how Dragon Year babies, falling TFR, and cohort sizes impact P1 registration competition.

birth cohort

TFR

Dragon Year

P1 registration forecast

Singapore births

Real Data from SingStat & Data.gov.sg| 6 Datasets

Live Births

Total Births 2024

+0.5%

33,703births

20152024

Fertility

TFR 2025

-10.3%

0.87record low

20152025

Citizens

Citizen Births 2024

+1.2%

29,237births

20152024

Education

P1→Sec Eligibility

98.4%

2024 cohort

Highest Ever

Total Live Births in Singapore (1980-2024)

Dragon Years (🐉) show clear birth spikes — but the 2024 Dragon Year is the lowest ever recorded

Mar 2026

SingStat: Live Births by Birth Order (d_6150f21b0892b3fdde546d2a1af2af82)

🐉 Dragon Year 1988🐉 Dragon Year 2000🐉 Dragon Year 2012🐉 Dragon Year 2024Peak: 52,957 (1988) → Lowest Dragon: 33,703 (2024)

Total Fertility Rate (1980-2025)

Singapore's TFR fell below 1.0 in 2023 and hit 0.87 in 2025 — among the lowest globally

Mar 2026

SingStat: Births & Fertility Rates (d_e39eeaeadb571c0d0725ef1eec48d166)

Replacement level: 2.1

Below 1.0 since 2023

Interactive Cohort Tracker

Select a birth year to see when this cohort reaches each education milestone

🐕

39,039babies born in 2018

Year of the DogCompetition:Average

👶

Birth2018

🎒

P1 Entry2025

📝

PSLE2030

🏫

Sec 12031

📋

O-Level2034

🎓

JC/Poly2035

Birth Cohort Size vs P1 Intake (7 Years Later)

Births are a leading indicator for P1 registration demand — the gap reflects immigration, emigration, and PR contributions

Mar 2026

SingStat Table M850411 + Live Births Data

Key Insight

P1 intake often exceeds the citizen birth cohort from 7 years prior because PR children and returning citizens add to demand. For example, 2017 saw 39,615 births, but 2024 P1 intake was 37,785 — the gap narrows when citizen births alone (32,356) are considered.

Births by Birth Order (1990-2024)

First-born children now account for ~47% of all births, up from ~40% in 1990

Mar 2026

SingStat: Live Births by Birth Order (d_6150f21b0892b3fdde546d2a1af2af82)

Resident vs Citizen Births (1990-2024)

The gap between resident and citizen births represents PR (Permanent Resident) births

Mar 2026

SingStat: Resident & Citizen Births (d_2f8073d5dda91ee3f8f89d6f1fb40cb7)

PR Birth Contribution

In 2024, resident births (30,808) minus citizen births (29,237) = 1,571 PR births, representing 5.1% of resident births. This gap has narrowed from ~2,000 in the early 2000s.

P1 Registration Demand Forecast

Projected P1 competition based on birth cohort sizes (births are the leading indicator, adjusted for immigration/emigration)

2025 P1Born 2018

39,039 births

moderate

2026 P1Born 2019

39,279 births

moderate

2027 P1Born 2020

38,590 births

moderate

2028 P1Born 2021

38,672 births

moderate

2029 P1Born 2022

35,605 births

less competitive

2030 P1Born 2023

33,541 births

significantly less

2031 P1Born 2024

🐉 2024

33,703 births

Dragon Year but lowest

Implication for Parents

Parents of children born 2022-2024 can expect significantly less P1 registration competition. However, popular schools will remain competitive regardless. The 2024 Dragon Year cohort (33,703) is the smallest Dragon Year cohort in modern Singapore history — far smaller than the 2012 Dragon Year (42,663).

P1 Cohort → Secondary Eligibility Rate (2014-2024)

Percentage of each P1 cohort that progresses to secondary school — consistently above 97%

Mar 2026

MOE via Data.gov.sg (d_176f39eb20dd296b537aeb5f06997c7e)

P1 Cohort → Post-Secondary Rate (2014-2023)

Percentage of each P1 cohort progressing to post-secondary education (JC, Poly, ITE)

Mar 2026

MOE via Data.gov.sg (d_8597ff230d944e3d05ca4fd1ca1aef3e)

Data Sources

Birth & Fertility Data

Education Pipeline Data

Key Statistics Summary

Total Births 2024

33,703

TFR 2025

0.87

Citizen Births 2024

29,237

P1→Sec Rate 2024

98.4%